Bowl Scenarios for BYU

Rumors are floating everywhere, but nothing will really be certain until Saturday night.  California Golden Blogs has a terrific rundown of the bowl possibilities involving Pac-10 teams.  I recommend that post and Mr. Wrubell's comments from yesterday.  Here's a short summary of the Cougars' prospective bowl opponents:

*Update* - CGB has posted an updated bowl scenario table following Oregon's win Thursday evening:

Scenarios Rose Holiday Sun Emerald Vegas Poinsettia Odds*
Cal wins + USC wins Oregon USC Cal Furd OSU Arizona 49.48%
Cal wins + USC loses Oregon Arizona Cal Furd OSU USC 20.86%
Cal loses + USC wins Oregon USC Furd OSU Cal Arizona 20.86%
Cal loses + USC loses Oregon Arizona Furd OSU USC Cal 8.80%

Potential Bowl Opponents:

Arizona - If the Wildcats (7-4) lose to USC they'll almost certainly play in the Poinsettia Bowl and face either the Utes or Cougars. If not there, they'll likely be in the Sun Bowl - I highly doubt they'll be in Las Vegas again.  Should Mike Stoops' squad upset the Trojans in L.A., they'll be in the Holiday Bowl.

California - Should USC lose to Arizona and Cal (8-3) to Washington, the Golden Bears could end up in the Poinsettia Bowl because USC owns the tie-breaker.  However, the Sun Bowl is more likely for the Bears.

Oregon State - If the Beavers (8-3) lose in the "Civil War" tomorrow, they'll most likely be in the Las Vegas Bowl. The only other options would be the Emerald Bowl and Sun Bowl.  However, the Emerald favors Cal and the Sun obviously prefers Arizona.  The Holiday Bowl has been mentioned as a possible destination for Oregon St., but that is a long-shot now.  If the Beavers win they'll be Rose Bowl bound.

Southern California - The Trojans (8-3) are almost certainly headed to San Diego.  If they defeat Arizona at the Coliseum on Saturday they'll play in the Holiday Bowl.  If they lose to the Wildcats at home, they'll likely head to the Poinsettia Bowl and face either BYU or Utah.  If Cal loses to Washington that could send the Trojans to Las Vegas.

Most Likely Scenarios:

Las Vegas Bowl:

1) BYU/Utah vs. Oregon State
2) BYU/Utah vs. USC
3) Utah vs. Arizona
4) BYU vs. Cal

Poinsettia Bowl:

1) BYU/Utah vs. Arizona
2) BYU/Utah vs. USC
3) BYU vs. Cal

Personally, I would love to see the Cougars play USC in either Vegas or San Diego.  But Oregon State is also a very attractive opponent.  I think the worst case scenario for BYU is a rematch with the Wildcats - most likely in San Diego.

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