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BYU bye week: A focus on recruiting

 

With a bye this week the BYU coaches will be able to get out for that all so important mid-season recruiting trip.  While coaches are not allowed to formally contact players in person on these trips, I can remember many "chance" encounters with college coaches during my junior and senior year of high school. 

After practices wrap up today the coaches will be heading out onto recruiting trail so I thought I would offer up some of my views on recruiting in general and specifically at BYU.

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When I was at BYU people would always ask me what I thought about us recruiting this guy or that guy.  99% of the time I didn’t have a clue who they were talking about.  Mainly because I never followed who BYU was recruiting anyway.

General Thoughts:

The fact of the matter is, at best recruits are 50/50.  Meaning 50% of the time they live up to the hype and 50% of the time you never hear about them after they sign that ever coveted LOI.  I never get involved in recruiting talk because it really doesn’t matter what guys did in high school.  College is a completely different level and I feel before I start hyping anyone up, they better be able to perform in their new surroundings.

Think about this for a minute.  In college there are 85 guys on scholarship…85!!!!  Only 22 of those guys start and probably only 40 get game time at best.  Interesting how that number 40 is about 50% of 85.  That means coaches get the recruiting right about ½ the time.   Now I know what you are thinking.  You are thinking, well part of those 85 guys are young and will end up being contributors later in their careers.  That is true, but that is not what the fans are concerned about.  Look at the Jake Heaps situation.  How many fans would have accepted anything less than Jake Heaps starting as a true freshman, even if it meant wasting a year of eligibility on a re-building team?  Before the season?  I think I was on my own on that take.  Now?  Maybe I have a few more people in my corner. 

There is a reason why the draft is on TV and LOI day is not.  I bet the draft ratio of Success v Bust is more like 80/20.  Why?  Because NFL teams can’t afford to have the sideline littered with mistakes.

BYU specific:

A lot of people have been commenting to me that BYU was supposed to have all these great recruits, yet the team is terrible.  Where are all those great recruits?  Well BYU is presented with a challenge that very few understand.  They not only have to plan around entering and exiting players due to graduation, but they also have to plan around two year church missions.  Some players leave before enrolling in college, some players red shirt or play for a year and then leave.  Others like Russell Tialavea, will leave later in their football careers.  The odd thing, is that coaches often have to adapt to the changing minds of 19 year old boys, who can’t decided when to go or if they want to go.  This is a challenge I don’t think anyone understands, unless you have been a coach at BYU.

The local draw:

Most schools pride themselves on winning the in-state recruiting battle.  But that should not be BYU’s focus.   I recall watching the Boise St. v Oregon St. game when the starters were announced for Boise St.  How many of them do you think were from Idaho?  I don’t know that there was one.  I kept hearing Los Angeles, CA.  I have to laugh when I look back at a specific time in my career at BYU when there were 8 players from a Utah high school team at the same Division I college.  That was a high school team that did not even win the state championship.  You can’t tell me that one team had that many DI quality players on it.  I get to watch, locally, some of the top teams in the country, and they don’t even have that.  My one disclaimer is that the heavy recruiting done at Timpview High School has been very successful, with two exceptions.  And really it's not to say that Utah doesn't have great talent, because I played with a lot of guys from Utah that were outstanding.  I just think we are a little too heavy on the local recruits.  I have prepared a little chart below that show the quality of recruits as determined by who is drafted into the NFL.

 

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Disclaimer: This graph shows all players from the states represented in the NFL that appeared on BYU's rosters since 1990.  It does not represent the number of scholarship players only and can include all walk-ons.

 

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Nice analysis – I would submit that your take on recruiting would be that much more interesting and you would have a more interesting take if you do a similar pie chart showing the home state off all recruits of BYU since 1990 and then put that along side of your current chart. We may have had 60 % of the recruits since 1990 come from the state of UT but only 19 % of them being drafted.

Nice research

by McGrubber on Oct 28, 2010 1:01 PM PDT reply actions  

Disclaimer

I thought I had put a sentence in there that talked about the fact that the majority of our recruits come from Utah, therefore there is a greater probability of a Utah recruit being drafted. I must of omitted it in the final draft. I think you are right…it needs to be in there, but I don’t have the time to research all recruits from 1990.

by Staffieri on Oct 28, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Take A Look at the new chart

Someone was kind enough to give me some more data. This is what you are looking for I bet.

by Staffieri on Oct 28, 2010 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

A little quick math

…and some eyeballed statistical comparisons, suggests less Utah recruiting and more Hawaii and Idaho – if the goal is to recruit NFL prospects. Utah recruits have the worst chance of making it to the NFL draft (8 of 302, 2.6%), compared to about 5% for CA, TX, AZ, CO, WA, & OR and about 10% for ID and HI. Ratios for WY, AK, and IN are also very high (25-50%) but those are also smaller sample sizes.

It’s not that simple, but that’s what the numbers say.

by J Campbell on Oct 29, 2010 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think we’re always going to be Utah-heavy since that’s where we find the most of the kind of recruits Bronco is looking for:

1. High desire to play at BYU.
2. Willingness to live the honor code.
3. LDS or LDS-friendly.

by WaybackCoug on Oct 29, 2010 11:58 AM PDT reply actions  

I agree with Campbell

When you look at the stats at who makes it to the next level we need to find a way to extend the reach of the school beyond the state of Utah. The CA numbers are right on line but the UT kids have very little chance to make it.

I would guess that we might get better kids out of Utah in the future due to our main comp (the Utes) may begin to have more extended recruiting ties to other areas. They will have more exposure in So. Cal and may continue to get more kids there and have lesser need for the Utah prospects. Utah’s entire D-Line is made up of quality LDS kids who possibly should have come to Provo and maybe in the future we can get them instead.

by McGrubber on Oct 29, 2010 2:24 PM PDT reply actions  

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