MWC Tournament Schedule and Predictions
by Layton on Mar 8, 2010 10:14 AM PST
17 comments
| 2010 CONOCO MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE MEN'S BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP PAIRINGS | |||
| Wednesday, March 10 | |||
| 2 p.m. | First-round Game | No. 8 Wyoming vs. No. 9 Air Force |  |
| Thursday, March 11 | |||
| Noon | Quarterfinal Game #1 | No. 1 New Mexico vs. No. 8/No. 9 Winner | |
| 2:30 p.m. | Quarterfinal Game #2 | No. 4 San Diego State vs. No. 5 Colorado State | /  |
| 6 p.m. | Quarterfinal Game #3 | No. 2 BYU vs. No. 7 TCU | |
| 8:30 p.m. | Quarterfinal Game #4 | No. 3 UNLV vs. No. 6 Utah | / |
| Friday, March 12 | |||
| 6 p.m. | Semifinal Game #1 | Quarterfinal #1 and #2 Winners | |
| 8:30 p.m. | Semifinal Game #2 | Quarterfinal #3 and #4 Winners | |
| Saturday, March 13 | |||
| 4 p.m. | Championship Game |  |
|
All times PST
Predictions after the jump...
First round:
We'll take Air Force over Wyoming. If the Falcons do one thing great it's control the clock. If they can score 10 points they can win because the Cowboys are just too depleted with injuries to score more than that...
Second round:
New Mexico will crush Air Force...maybe. Did anybody see them escape against TCU last week by six?
SDSU vs. CSU: If there's going to be an upset, I'm picking it here. It seems like there's always a team that surprises in the conference tournament, and CSU is actually a decent team. This is the end of the road for the Aztecs and their NCAA tournament dreams.
BYU vs. TCU: After playing the worst five minutes of a first half in the history of college basketball last Saturday, BYU still scored 55 points before halftime and cruised to a 30-point win in Ft. Worth. Need I say more?
UNLV vs. Utah: Before this last week I was hoping this would be the match up in order to give the Cougars a break in the semifinals. That was my hope until Utah got clobbered at home by Michael Lloyd and Brandon Davies, and then managed to lose by double figures against the Rams. Plus, it's really, really hard to beat a team three times in a season, not to mention twice on their home court. UNLV wins easily.
Semi-Finals:
New Mexico vs. CSU: Colorado St. will make it a game for the first half, but then the Lobos' talent and athleticism will dominate the 2nd half. The Lobos have earned a spot in the conference championship game.
BYU vs. UNLV: Oh boy. Does anybody remember what happened last month in Vegas? Does anybody remember the last time we beat UNLV in Vegas? It's been a long time. Surely, UNLV can't shoot the ball like they did in February again, and certainly the drought in the desert has to end some time. And listen, with the emergence of Lloyd and Davies, and the peaking of Emery, BYU can finally beat the Rebels, especially if Utah plays them tough the day before.
If this tournament wasn't the unfairest of unfair by being played on the Rebels' home court I'd feel better about things...but what the heck! BYU wins in OT and meets UNM in the championship.
Championship:
It will be a heckuva game with both teams fighting for a 3-seed. It's too close to call, barring injury. Don't miss it!
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Scenarios
If BYU wins the MWC Tournament:
1 – Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2 – Purdue, Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas State,
3 – Villanova, Pitt, Michigan State, BYU
4 – New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
Though I personally believe the best BYU can do is a 4-seed, even if they win the conference tournament…
If New Mexico wins the MWC Tournament:
1 – Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2 – Purdue, Ohio State, New Mexico, Kansas State,
3 – Villanova, Pitt, Michigan State, West Virginia
4 – BYU, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
If UNLV wins the MWC Tournament:
1 – Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2 – Purdue, Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas State,
3 – Villanova, Pitt, Michigan State, Tennessee
4 – Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, New Mexico
5 – BYU, Butler, Maryland, UNLV
I think the worst BYU can do is a 5 seed – even if they lose to UNLV in the semifinal…
If you personally believe the best BYU does is a 4 seed, why do you have them as a 3 in that first scenario? I agree with your italics. No way that we get a higher seed than UNM… unless UNM loses to the 8/9 seed, and we win the Tourney. That ain’t happenin’.
My swag was phenomenal.
BYU as a 3
For two reasons: 1) to acknowledge that stranger things have happened and you never truly know how the committee will seed the Cougars; and 2) to appease vaughnzipper;)
BYU needs to win the tournament if they want to play in the West region
Otherwise NM will be in the West and BYU will go to the East since they don’t play on Sundays. I’m not delusional but if they do get seeded in the West, with SLC being the regional finals, I’d give the Cougs a shot at making the final 4.
Don't trust this guy. He lies.
odds
anyone seen vegas odds on the conference tournament winner? wait, this is a byu forum…of course nobody looks at gambling odds! so i’ll take the sin for us all
a few tidbits
BYU is 45/1 to win the ncaa tournament – 14th best
or BYU +5000 to win ncaa tournament (bet 100 to win 5,000) from a reputable offshore site
to win mtn west tournament:
BYU 1/1
New Mehico 37/20
UNLV 2/1
SDSU 5/1
Utah 15/1
Colorado St 20/1
Field 25/1
teamrankings.com chances to win mtn west tournament:
BYU 49.68 %
New Mehico 26.43 %
UNLV 13.23 %
SDSU 11.01 %
Colorado State 0.36 %
Utah 0.26 %
no odds yet on opening round games
It was hard to find his name anywhere available (most often just included in the field bet) but jimmer to win the wooden award: +1500 but that seems ridiculous. the field bet is 7/1.
and just to throw it in: Jazz 28/1 to win the finals (13/1) to win west conference
my initial impression
vegas seems to believe more in the cougars chances that i do in the mtn west tournament. my money is staying in my pocket for this. if anything, new mehico is the best bet since they dont have to face both unlv and byu, just the survivor of their round 2 game.
and this is off topic but i feel like saying it constantly this week: EFF unlv and their home court advantage!
Pomeroy Predictions
Here:
Mountain West: March 10-13 (all games at UNLV)
Seed Qtrs Semis Final Champ
2 BYU 100 96.5 60.5 48.1
3 UNLV 100 89.9 38.3 26.5
1 New Mexico 100 95.3 53.4 13.1
4 San Diego St. 100 86.2 44.0 11.9
6 Utah 100 10.1 0.9 0.2
5 Colorado St. 100 13.8 2.2 0.1
7 TCU 100 3.5 0.3 0.03
8 Wyoming 66.4 3.7 0.3 0.008
9 Air Force 33.6 1.0 0.05 0.0006
Before anyone gets too crazy and praises the MWC as the best conference in the West, just look at the bottom three teams here. No power conference has anything resembling a bottom that weak. TCU, Wyoming, and Air Force went a combined 3-33 against the top six teams in the league. San Diego State has the most to play for since its NCAA tournament existence depends on picking up a quality win or two here. New Mexico enters the tourney with a 10-0 record in games decided by five points or less. No team this millennium has finished a season with that many close wins without a loss.
My swag was phenomenal.
is BYU truly such a strong favorite?
its crazy to see BYU picked 60.5% here to win against likely opponent UNLV on their home court where the Cougars never win. BYU’s only bad loss of the season came by way of that matchup. i personally see the matchup in favor of UNLV 60-40. This is the type of game that I get pumped up for and the team always falls short. I hope they have it in them to prove me wrong!
Usually, “favorite” refers to the market, where people are willing to put their money on the line. I haven’t looked at the latest Vegas odds recently, but last I checked, UNLV paid 3/2, UNM next at 8/5, then BYU next at 9/5.
So, BYU is NOT favored. The Pomeroy predictions are based on offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and scoring margin. BYU is very efficient on both ends and KILLS other teams in their conference. BYU leads the nation in conference Efficiency Margin (more points per possession than allowed). UNLV got swept by Utah, UNM really struggled against bad teams all year long. The numbers game loves BYU.
It is crazy. The market doesn’t predict that.
My swag was phenomenal.
Interesting
Very interesting.
My buddy told me those odds that I listed above. If that was accurate, it looks like the market really favors BYU!
My swag was phenomenal.
My Predictions
AFA over WYO by 5
UNM over AFA by 12
SDSU over CSU by 6
BYU over TCU by 21
UNLV over Utah by 8
SDSU over UNM by 5
BYU over UNLV by 14
BYU over SDSU by 7
My swag was phenomenal.
Reasonable outcome
I’m all giddy inside! This could push BYU to a 3 seed but because it would more than likely be a low 3 seed I’d rather have them take first pick as a 4 seed.
SDSU is playing for their lives. I think they will beat UNM, and we all know that the crowd will be cheering for SDSU.
If we can beat UNLV, we will win it all. I think we’ll do it. If they’re as pissed as I am about losing to UNM and allowing the best BYU team in the last 20 years to NOT win its own regular season title, then they can win.
I see it’s either UNLV and SDSU or BYU and SDSU in the finals.
My swag was phenomenal.
via GB:
He was questioned about his health, and Fredette said multiple times “I’m fine,” “I feel fine,” or “I feel pretty good.” He said his weight is not “up to par”, but that he expects to be ready for go for three games in three nights in Las Vegas.
My swag was phenomenal.
WOW!
Not only is the tourney played on their home court but they also get the favorable time slots! What a j-o-k-e!
You’re a bold man Layton to say CSU takes out SDSU… whom many think will win the tourney. I do think there is an upset in SDSU’s future though… over UNM.
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