BYU Bracketology
by sroufe on Mar 9, 2010 7:00 AM PST
8 comments
In a matchup as magnificent as any the Earth has seen since Hades vs. Zeus, the University of Wyoming Cowboys and Air Force Academy Falcons will open MWC Tournament play in Las Vegas on Wednesday afternoon. But before that epic, let's breakdown where your No. 14 BYU Cougars stand as projected by The Fates, err, bracketologists.
Best-Case Scenario:
4 BYU vs. 13 Kent State - at San Jose (WEST REGION) (See Bracket Project)
How can it happen? -
Reaching the MWC Tournament Championship game by beating TCU and UNLV on their home floor - something the Cougars have failed to accomplish during the Dave Rose era. Now, if that were to happen, the Cougars would love to see the Aztecs upset the Lobos in the Semi-Final round and for Jimmer Fredette to be 100% healthy or close to it. If either of those are the case (or both), then BYU will have a great chance of attaining a 4-seed.
And, in case you've been ice fishing in Irkutsk the past two months, BYU wants a 4-seed in the West Region - with an opportunity to play in Salt Lake City in the Sweet 16. Who is Kent State? Well, the Golden Flashes of Kent, Ohio have a 23-8 overall record and won the MAC. Their best wins have been over UAB, Wofford, and Akron.
Most Likely:
5 BYU vs. 12 Seton Hall - at San Jose (EAST REGION) (See Blogging the Bracket)
4 BYU vs. 13 Illinois - at San Jose (EAST REGION) (See ESPN)
How can it happen? -
The projected Semi-Final game between BYU and UNLV will probably have a 4-seed at stake for the Cougars. Should they lose to the Rebels they'll probably fall to a 5 or even a 6 seed. Of course, despite BYU's loss to UNLV on February 6th at the Thomas & Mack Center, there's no reason to think the Cougars can't finally beat Lon Kruger's club in Sin City. BYU's most athletic players - Abouo, Davies, Emery and Loyd - are all playing well of late, and that bodes well for the Cougars in matching up against Tre'von Willis and Co.
The ESPN projection seems fair assuming a Cougar win against UNLV. And while BYU wouldn't be ecstatic about drawing a team like the 18-13 Fighting Illini, there are much worse scenarios. Illinois has beaten Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Clemson, Wisconsin and Wofford this season - but have also lost three in a row to finish conference play. They also lost to the Utes in Las Vegas in November. Needless to say it's been an inconsistent season for Bruce Weber's team. Another interesting note about playing Illinois is that you'd likely see Michael Jordan in attendance as his son Jeff is a back-up point guard for the Illini.
As for earning a 5 seed, it would be the best the Cougars have merited since 1988 (4-seed) and the last time BYU was seeded anything higher than 8 they won a tournament game. The other aspect in the Cougars' favor here is that they'd have a major home-court advantage in San Jose over schools like Illinois and Seton Hall.
What is Seton Hall like this year? Why haven't you heard much buzz about their squad this season? Well, maybe because they finished the Big East schedule tied for 9th in the conference. (That's right, the Big East should have at least nine teams in the NCAA Tournament - and that's not including UCONN.) The Seton Hall Pirates are currently 18-11 and will probably be 19-12 headed into the tourney. They have beaten Pitt and Louisville this season. The Pirates may have 11 losses - but none of them are considered "bad losses."
Worst Thing to Happen Since Achilles' Heel aka Jimmer's Mono:
6 BYU vs 11 St. Mary's - at San Jose (EAST REGION) (See Walter Football)
6 BYU vs. 11 Georgia Tech - at San Jose (WEST REGION) (See The Hoops Report)
6 BYU vs. 11 Florida - at Providence (EAST REGION) (See CNNSI, MSNBC, Bracketology 101)
How can it happen? -
A loss in the Semi-Final round to UNLV and perhaps some bad luck. Frankly, all of the above scenarios are a bit scary. Actually, I think playing St. Mary's in San Jose (an hour drive from the Gaels' campus in Moraga) is downright terrifying. Almost as terrifying as playing Georgia Tech and seeing Chris Miles and Noah Hartsock matched up against Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors. Yuck.
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Interesting Analysis
I think the 4 seed is our ceiling, but if we win the MWC Tourney, it’s possible our scheduling difficulties could bump us up. In past years, our scheduling difficulties have always bumped us down, but you never know how things could play out.
I find it interesting that everyone sees UNM as the undisputed kings of the MWC, yet BYU is favored to win the MWC Tourney. The market must like BYU.
My swag was phenomenal.
who knows how seeding will play out
byu is normally disrespected by the committee but who knows this year. if byu wins the conference tourney, they have a great chance of a high seed. they are well regarded this year nationally. i think byu being favored by vegas and oddsmakers proves that. and the way that the bench has played in the past few games really gives byu and upperhand going into the tournament, in my opinion.
We have seen byu play phenomenal defense at times so if they can turn it up against unlv and new mexico, then they will be in great shape. they have ALOT to play for and i think the pressure is on the other teams this year. pressure is on unlv at home and pressure is always on the one seed to lose their spot on top of the conference and validate the regular season.
update
espn bracketology now has byu seeded 5th in the west region facing siena. i like this position. besides being in the upset special 5-12 matchup, a wine would put them against vanderbilt in the 2nd round. motivation to play in salt lake city and reaching the sweet 16 would put them likely against duke, with byu having the huge homecourt advantage. besides duke being a nationally huge game, i think byu would match up well with scheyer and company!
This is really interesting and confusing...and exciting
First off, anything in the West region would be fantastic for the Cougars. Having a chance to play in the ESA in front of a sold-out, pro-Cougar crowd in the Sweet 16 would be phenomenal.
Having said that, Lunardi’s latest update is surprising on two fronts:
1) As has be well-discussed over the last couple weeks, if BYU were to end up in the West region they’d be considered “protected”—not only playing in the west, with a chance to play in SLC, but also having an “easier” ride to the Sweet 16. Now, it has been common thought that the winner of the MWC tournament (if it was BYU or New Mexico) would get protected status, and that in absolutely no circumstance would the committee protect two MWC teams.
2) As a result of this philosophy, Lundardi is basically picking BYU to win the MWC tournament. Strangely, however, he’s saying that even if they were to win they’d only be a 5-seed. I believe if BYU wins the tournament they’ll be a 3-seed, no lower than a 4-seed.
Am I missing something? It’s just not adding up…
Vanquish the Foe, a BYU Cougars blog at SB Nation
it is confusing
but alot of things have to go right for byu to get that scenario. id take the 5 seed in the west over a 4 seed in the east
Seeding
IMO if they win 2 tournament games that will give them a total of 30 wins this season. With that accomplishment they should be a 4 seed in the tournament with a title victory a possible 3 seed depending how other conference tournaments finish out. A conference title win gives them victories agains a home team of UNLV and a victory over top ten ranked New Mexico (should they get past SDS) and those should count as quality wins in their favor.
Anything lower than a five seed with the season they have had should be considered and insult to them and the conference.
the key
is the 2nd round vs UNLV. Do we match up better with them with loyd, jr? we barely beat them in provo and got crushed on the road. so maybe loyd slows down tre’von better than jimmer. we all know jimmer is slow on D and if UNLV shoots lights out again, the zone isnt going to work. i feel like i have to be out of line to suggest jimmer may be too much a liability to overcome with his offense and loyd may be able to provide a better overall game in this particular matchup. someone tell me i am crazy here!
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