Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire
Using Las Vegas Odds to get a hopefully-accurate prediction for BYU's game against Utah State.
It's again time to take a close look at the betting lines and odds for BYU as it takes on the 4-1 Utah State Aggies tonight. This is, of course, for entertainment purposes only. While we don't encourage gambling, referencing predictions from the people who make money on predictions is far more useful than reading what sports journalists predict.
When the first sports book opened a line, BYU was favored by 9 points and the over/under was set at 44.
It is important to note that for college odds, home-field advantage is generally considered to be worth 3 points. Jeff Sagarin, ratings master whose poll is part of the BCS computer rankings, calculates home-field advantage on a season-by-season basis. So far this season, his numbers show home-field advantage as being worth 2.53 points.
After some movement, here are where the lines sit now:
O/U is the over/under betting line -- it is a point total for both teams.
LVH: BYU by 6.5 | O/U 45
MGM: BYU by 7 | O/U 45
Hill: BYU by 6.5 | O/U 45.5
Wynn: BYU by 7 | O/U 46
Caesars: BYU by 6.5 | O/U 45.5
Stations: BYU by 6.5 | O/U 45.5
All the books seem to be relatively in sync, and money has come in on Utah State since bets opened, meaning many bettors think BYU was favored by a little too much on the opening line.
According to the combination of the odds and the over/under, odds have BYU beating the Aggies by approximately the score of 26-20.
Using Sagarin's ratings, BYU is rated with 79.35 points and Utah State is rated at 73.49 -- a difference of 5.86 points. Factor in the 2.53 points for BYU's home field advantage, and Sagarin's formula has BYU as an approximate 8.5 point favorite.
If you were to wager Skittles on either the line or the over/under, what would you bet?
Look for more lines and predictions later today with Zach Bloxham's weekly 9-Line Prediction. For more odds, visit the NCAA Football odds hub.