MARCO GARCIA-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire
Using Las Vegas Odds to get a hopefully-accurate prediction for BYU's game against Hawaii.
It's again time to take a close look at the betting lines and odds for BYU as it welcomes Hawaii into town tonight. This is, of course, for entertainment purposes only. While we don't encourage gambling, referencing predictions from the people who make money on predictions is far more useful than reading what sports journalists predict.
When the first sports book opened a line, BYU was favored by 28.5 points and the over/under was set at 53.5.
It is important to note that for college odds, home-field advantage is generally considered to be worth 3 points. Jeff Sagarin, ratings master whose poll is part of the BCS computer rankings, calculates home-field advantage on a season-by-season basis. So far this season, his numbers show home-field advantage as being worth 2.38 points.
After some movement, here are where the lines sit now:
O/U is the over/under betting line -- it is a point total for both teams.
LVH: BYU by 25.5 | O/U 49.5
MGM: BYU by 26.5
Hill: BYU by 26.5
Wynn: BYU by 26 | O/U 49.5
Caesars: BYU by 26
Stations: BYU by 26.5 | O/U 49.5
All the books seem to be relatively in sync, and money has come in on Hawaii since bets opened, meaning many bettors think BYU was favored by a little too much. According to the combination of the odds and the over/under, odds have BYU beating Hawaii by approximately the score of 38-12.
Using Sagarin's ratings, BYU is rated with 77.21 points and Hawaii is rated at 61.83 -- a difference of 15.38 points. Factor in the 2.38 points for BYU's home field advantage, and Sagarin's formula has BYU as an approximate 17.5 point favorite.
This is the first time this season I have seen such a rather-drastic difference between the Vegas lines and Jeff Sagarin. If you were to wager Skittles on either the line or the over/under, what would you bet?
For more odds, visit the NCAA Football odds hub.