BYU can have a "November to Remember"

George Frey

At Wisconsin who is ranked 24 in the BCS poll and at Notre Dame who is currently ranked 23rd in the BCS poll are what is standing between BYU being considered good or great. Wins against both nationally recognized powers would most definitely catapult BYU into the top 20, possibly knocking at the door of the top 15. With a bowl win against a good Pac 12 opponent, BYU would likely finish the season ranked between 10-15. #12 is the highest BYU has finished ranked in the Bronco era, that was in 2009 when BYU finished 11-2 with an impressive win over ranked Oregon St. in the Las Vegas Bowl at the end of Max Hall's Sr. year.

As BYU embarks on a month of opportunity we look at the many scenarios of what can and will happen, also go over some facts and stats about BYU and Wisconsin that will likely surprise you.

Scenarios for November:

0-4: BYU loses to Wisconsin and Notre Dame, and lays huge eggs by losing to Idaho St. at home and Nevada on the road. BYU would finish the season with a 6-6 record, and likely lose their bowl game. 6-7, finished unranked. It would mark the first losing season in Bronco's tenure as head coach.

Possible: Yes. Likelihood: It won't happen.

1-3: BYU loses to Wisconsin and Notre Dame on the road, beats Idaho St. but somehow loses a close one on the road against Nevada. BYU would finish the season with a 7-5 record, bowl game pending. 7-6 or 8-5, finishes unranked.

Possible: Yes. Likelihood: Very unlikely.

2-2: BYU loses to Wisconsin and Notre Dame, beats Idaho St. and Nevada. BYU would finish the season with an 8-4 record, bowl game pending. 9-4 or 8-5, finishes unranked.

Possible: Yes. Likelihood: Very likely.

3-1: BYU loses to Wisconsin but beats Notre Dame OR beats Wisconsin but slips to Notre Dame, takes care of Idaho St. and Nevada as expected, and finishes the season with a 9-3 record, bowl game pending. 10-3 or 9-4, finishes ranked in top 25 if they win the bowl game.

Possible: Yes. Likelihood: Likely.

4-0: BYU beats #24 Wisconsin, beats Notre Dame who may or may not be ranked at the time, takes care of Idaho St and Nevada, and finishes the season with a 10-2 record, bowl game pending. 11-2 or 10-3, finishes ranked in the top 25 if they lose the bowl game, finishes in the top 15 if wins the bowl game and goes down as one of the most impressive seasons Bronco has had as head coach of BYU.

Possible: Yes. Likelihood: Unlikely.

BYU going 0-4, 1-3, or 4-0 in November are probably the least likely to happen. Going 2-2 or 3-1 are probably the most likely to happen.

Stats and Facts for BYU and Wisconsin:

- According to ESPN.com, BYU's S.O.S. (strength of schedule) ranks #12 in the nation. Wisconsin's ranks 51st.

- BYU is 1-0 against opponents that were ranked at the time (W- Texas), Wisconsin is 1-1 (L- Ohio St, W- Northwestern)

- The combined record of the opponents BYU has beaten is 30-17 (.638). The combined record of the opponents Wisconsin has beaten is 17-36 (.320).

- The average record of the opponents BYU has beaten is 6-3. The average record of the opponents Wisconsin has beaten is 3-6.

- Every team BYU has beaten currently has a winning record (6). One team Wisconsin has beaten has a winning record. (Iowa, 5-4).

- Four of the six teams BYU has beaten are already bowl eligible. None of the teams Wisconsin has beaten are bowl eligible.

- BYU is currently 6-0 against teams that currently have winning records. Wisconsin is 1-2.

- BYU's best wins are against Houston (7-1), Texas (6-2), Georgia Tech (6-3), and Boise St. (6-3). Wisconsin's best wins are against Iowa (5-4) and Northwestern (4-5).

- The first 3 games Taysom Hill threw a completion pct of 35% against opponents who have a combined record of 13-12 (.520), BYU went 1-2 in those games.

- The last 5 games Hill has averaged a completion pct of 65% against opponents who have a combined record of 29-15 (.659), BYU is 5-0 in those games.

My key to the game vs. Wisconsin:

There are many keys, but the main and most glaring statistic is the correlation between Taysom Hill's accuracy and BYU's wins when he is. If Taysom is his 65% self (or runs for 259 rushing yards and 3 TDs), BYU will win. If he is his 35% self (and doesn't run for 259 rushing yards and 3 TD's), BYU will lose.

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