Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire
Using Las Vegas Odds to get a hopefully-accurate prediction for BYU's game against Oregon State.
It's again time to take a close look at the betting lines and odds for BYU as it takes on the undefeated Oregon State Beavers on Saturday. This is, of course, for entertainment purposes only. While we don't encourage gambling, referencing predictions from the people who make money on predictions is far more useful than reading what sports journalists predict.
When the first sports book opened a line, BYU was favored by 5 points and the over/under was set at 38.5.
It is important to note that for college odds, home-field advantage is generally considered to be worth 3 points. Jeff Sagarin, ratings master whose poll is part of the BCS computer rankings, calculates home-field advantage on a season-by-season basis. So far this season, his numbers show home-field advantage as being worth 2.62 points.
After some movement, here are where the lines sit now:
O/U is the over/under betting line -- it is a point total for both teams.
LVH: BYU by 5.5 | O/U 37.5
MGM: BYU by 5.5 | O/U 37
Hill: BYU by 5.5 | O/U 37.5
Wynn: BYU by 5.5 | O/U 37.5
Caesars: BYU by 5.5 | O/U 37
Stations: BYU by 5.5 | O/U 37.5
All the books seem to be relatively in sync, but this line has been interesting. After opening at 5 points for BYU, it moved down to around 3 or 3.5 as people began to bet on Oregon State. But then the news broke that Oregon State would be without Sean Mannion at quarterback. With game-untested Cody Vaz taking over, money shifted back toward BYU.
According to the combination of the odds and the over/under, odds have BYU beating the Beavers by approximately the score of 21-16.
Using Sagarin's ratings, BYU is rated with 81.66 points and Oregon State is rated at 80.32 -- a difference of 1.34 points. Factor in the 2.62 points for BYU's home field advantage, and Sagarin's formula has BYU as an approximate 4 point favorite.
If you were to wager decaffeinated Coke on either the line or the over/under, what would you bet?
Look for more lines and predictions later today with Zach Bloxham's weekly 9-Line Prediction. For more odds, visit the NCAA Football odds hub.