Using Las Vegas odds to get a hopefully-accurate prediction for BYU's game against Notre Dame.
It's again time to take a close look at the betting lines and odds for BYU as it takes on the undefeated #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday. This is, of course, for entertainment purposes only. While we don't encourage gambling, referencing predictions from the people who make money on predictions is far more useful than reading what sports journalists predict.
When the first sports book opened a line, BYU was a 14-point underdog and the over/under was set at 41.5.
It is important to note that for college odds, home-field advantage is generally considered to be worth 3 points. Jeff Sagarin, ratings master whose poll is part of the BCS computer rankings, calculates home-field advantage on a season-by-season basis. This season, his numbers show home-field advantage as being worth 2.66 points.
After some movement, here are where the lines sit now:
O/U is the over/under betting line -- it is a point total for both teams.
LVH: ND by 13.5 | O/U 40
MGM: ND by 13 | O/U 40.5
Hill: ND by 13.5 | O/U 40
Wynn: ND by 13.5 | O/U 40.5
Caesars: ND by 13.5 | O/U 40.5
Stations: ND by 13.5 | O/U 40.5
Lots of agreement here, with a little money coming in on BYU to make the line come down just a touch since opening.
According to the combination of the odds and the over/under, odds have Notre Dame as the winner by the approximate score of 27-13.
Using Sagarin's ratings, BYU is rated with 79.18 points and Notre Dame is rated at 91.76 -- a difference of 12.58. Factor in the 2.66 points for the Irish home field advantage, and Sagarin's formula has BYU as an approximate 15 point underdog.
If you were to wager a diet decaffeinated Dr. Pepper on either the line or the over/under, what would you bet?
Look for more lines and predictions tomorrow with Zach Bloxham's weekly 9-Line Prediction. For more odds, visit the NCAA Football odds hub.