Using Las Vegas odds to get a hopefully-accurate prediction for BYU's game against San Jose State.
At 6-4, BYU is now bowl eligible and has accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl. Now, its task is to make this more than a purely mediocre season, and the 8-2 San Jose State Spartans provide a challenge. Let's take a look at the betting lines and odds to see where things stand.
This is, of course, for entertainment purposes only. While we don't encourage gambling, referencing predictions from the people who make money on predictions is far more useful than reading what sports journalists predict.
When the first sports book opened a line, BYU was a 7-point favorite and the over/under was set at 57.
It is important to note that for college odds, home-field advantage is generally considered to be worth 3 points. Jeff Sagarin, ratings master whose poll is part of the BCS computer rankings, calculates home-field advantage on a season-by-season basis. So far this season, his numbers show home-field advantage is worth 3.01 points.
After significant movement, here are where the lines sit now:
O/U is the over/under betting line -- it is a point total for both teams.
LVH: BYU by 3 | O/U 47
MGM: BYU by 3 | O/U 47.5
Hill: BYU by 3 | O/U 48
Wynn: BYU by 3 | O/U 48
Caesars: BYU by 3 | O/U 47
Stations: BYU by 3 | O/U 48.5
The books are in agreement, and significant money has come in on San Jose State to cover and on the under. According to the combination of the odds and the over/under, BYU wins by the score of 25-22.
Using Sagarin's ratings, BYU is rated at 81.38 points and SJSU is rated at 78.05 -- a difference of 3.33. Factor in the 3.01 points for the Spartans' home field advantage, and Sagarin's formula has BYU as an 0.3-point favorite, a virtual pick 'em. Using Sagarin's spread, BYU might win 24-23.
So fans -- will it be as close as bettors and Sagarin predict?
Look for more lines and predictions with Zach Bloxham's weekly 9-Line Prediction. For more odds, visit the NCAA Football odds hub.