clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

VegasInsider over-under win line for BYU football set at 8 wins

New, 4 comments

Vegas is giving a little more action on BYU to finish under eight wins. What do you think?

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Early lines on specific games aren't the only bits of Vegas news trickling out this offseason. The first early over-under win totals are out from VegasInsider, and they've included a projection for BYU.

VegasInsider lists BYU at 8 wins, with the Over +105, and the Under -125. For those that aren't used to reading odds, that means a $100 bet on the Over gets you $105, and you would need to bet $125 on the under to win $100. In plain english, this means the oddsmakers think BYU hitting the under is slightly more likely than hitting the over, so they are offering slightly better action on betting the Cougars have a more successful season.

We're a long way from any football being played, but hitting more than eight wins could be tricky. SBNation.com's BYU preview calculated BYU's win probability for each game based one efficiency statistics, and came up with exactly seven projected wins.

BYU is given a greater than 90% chance to win two games (Southern Utah and Massachusetts), and a greater than 65% chance to win two more (74% against Utah State, 68% against Toledo). With the exception of the road trip to Michigan State (where BYU is currently given just a 31% chance of springing the upset), BYU has between a 40% and 65% chance of winning any other game. Finishing with more than eight wins would require the Cougars to get some good fortune with injuries, turnovers and late game bounces.

It's also, of course, possible that all the projections are wrong, and maybe either BYU is much better than the experts think, or maybe some of their opponents are worse. If that's how you feel, these odds show that maybe you can make a modest profit putting your money where your mouth is.

BYU might have the schedule to make a deep Top 25 run, but others, from Vegas, to ESPN's FPI, to SBNation's projections, appear to be more skeptical.