Texas athletic director, Mike Perrin said today that we may not have even scratched the surface when it comes to Big 12 expansion talks. He also made it abundantly clear that Texas remains firm in their desire to stay with 10 teams:
"I think the prudent thing for us to do as a conference is stay where we are"
Big 12 commissioner, Bob Bowlsby reiterated that he hopes the conference is able to vote on it by the end of the summer.
Texas technically isn't the only vote, of course, but given the outsized influence they hold over the conference, thanks to their school-exclusive TV contract, their enormous athletic budget, and stature within the league, it is difficult to imagine how the conference could decide to make such a drastic decision without the Longhorns being on board.
It's also worth mentioning that the Big 12 is short a few experienced leaders, at the moment. With the recent debacle at Baylor, the Big 12 now has three interim school presidents, including one on the expansion committee. Expecting the conference to make a decision with 30% of the school presidents potentially being temporary might be too much to ask.
Another aspect that may stall expansion is the Big 12 may feel like they should wait for realignment. Even Texas seems to be on board with this idea:
Perrin suggests expanding now might limit the Big 12's options down the line: "We're probably going to see another round of alignment."— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) June 1, 2016
Texas may be concerned that should the Big 12 expand now, they would be less able to expand again once the grant of rights agreements with other major conferences end, hurting their long-term flexibility. But given the instability of the conference at the moment, and given how vocal others, like Oklahoma and West Virginia, have been about making changes now, why would anybody leave a Power Five league to join with Texas?
If there's another round of alignment, it's more likely because Texas or Oklahoma left, rather than Texas or Oklahoma being able to recruit another power program to the league.
It isn't over until the fat lady sings, after all, but BYU's hopes for joining the Big 12 appear to have taken a major hit. If Texas doesn't want it, it probably doesn't happen.