It’s been scientifically proven that stats are less fun after a loss, and the stats from the Cal game sure aren’t very fun. Nevertheless, we will trudge forward and break them down for you.
Just one week after bottling up Khalil Tate, Cal’s quarterback duo of Chase Garbers and Brandon McIlwain ran for 119 yards, averaging 5.67 yards per carry. Contrast that with BYU’s rushing game, that — excluding sacks and the end-of-half kneel down – only amassed 107 yards total.
BYU had 7 consecutive drives that were 3 or fewer plays. 1:26 2nd Quarter to 3:38 of the 4th Quarter— almost a full half without a single first down.
Success Rate is a measure of offensive efficiency. In essence, its goal is to measure an offense “staying ahead of the sticks.” A play is determined to be successful if it meets one of the following criteria: 50% of required yards on 1st down, 70% of required yards on 2nd down, 100% of required yards on 3rd or 4th down.
For example, a drive that starts with a 5-yard run on 1st & 10, a 4 yard pass on 2 & 5, and a 1 yard run on 3rd & 1 would be 100% successful. This method has its shortcomings. Take two hypothetical offenses: Team 1 always gets 5 yards on 1st down, 4 yards on 2nd down, 0 yards on 3rd, and punts on 4th down. Team 2 always gets 3 yards on 1st down, 3 yards on 2nd down, 3 yards on 3rd down, and 3 yards on 4th down. Team 1 would have a success rate of 50% and Team 2 would have a success rate of 25%. But in general, it is a good measurement for offensive consistency and ability to keep drives moving.
Looking at the last 2 weeks shows a telling story. In week 1, BYU’s offense had a success rate of 50.7% and held Arizona to a success rate of 39.1%. In week 2, BYU had a success rate of 40.5% and allowed Cal to succeed on 48% of plays. Houston (against Arizona) had a success rate of 42.9% and held Arizona to 35.3%. BYU’s success rate dropped by 10% from week 1 to week 2. We’ve all noticed that Arizona isn’t as good as everyone thought, but Houston had a less “successful” offense but scored 17 more points. BYU’s offense is decently efficient (NCAA Success Rate average in Week 1 was 42.56%) but hasn’t capitalized on that. BYU’s lack of big plays and inability to get large chucks of yardage is something to pay attention to as the season progresses.
Battle of the Mangums: Tanner vs Tyler
The confusion about BYU’s QB1’s first name has me thinking they are twins who alternate playing. I’ll be tracking their respective stat lines through the year.
Tanner (Week 1): 18/28, 209 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 7.46 yards per attempt, 138.77 rating
Tyler (Week 2): 22-41, 196 yards, 1TD, 2INTs, 4.78 YPA, 92.1 rating.
Tyler threw 28 more passes for 13 fewer yards. There was a drop of 2.68 YPA (*cough*lack of big plays*cough*). Early results indicated Tanner is the better twin.
Other Notable Numbers
651: Days since BYU’s last fumble return for a touchdown (Michael Shelton, Utah State 11/26/16) before Dayan Ghanwoloku’s 36-yard touchdown return.
1: Angry emails received by VTF from Tupperware because Jake Welch incorrectly believes that paper plates stapled together are anywhere near Tupperware quality when they are much closer to “generic plastic container” quality.
Random Physics Note of the Game
Researchers performed a study done on the mechanics of different pitching motions in order to determine the strain on joints through the body. The study focused mainly on the differences between overhand pitchers and pitchers who dropped their elbows lower and released from a position closer to 2 o’clock. The study found that throwing overhand resulted in a 46N (10.43 lbs, to make that more relatable) force on the elbow. The 2 o’clock position resulted in a 66N (14.84 lbs) force (a 143% increase). Though an increase of about 5 pounds doesn’t seem like much, that wear over the course of a game, a week of practice, and eventually the entire season wears down the arm. Increased force in the elbow is related to UCL tears, tendonitis, and other injuries. Throwers should try to maintain an overhand throw versus dropping closer to a sidearm to avoid arm injuries and get the most out of their kinetic chain.