The race for the WCC second seed is in the final week, with San Francisco, St Mary’s and BYU all still having a shot at claiming the triple bye to the WCC tournament semifinals. BYU’s loss to Gonzaga was expected, but blowing the 14-point lead to the Dons really put BYU in a hole; had BYU won that game, they would be in the driver’s seat for second place.
Here is each scenario of how BYU can finish second or third. These scenarios assume BYU beats San Diego, unless noted (not assuming BYU will win, but assuming for the sake of this exercise).
How BYU finishes second:
Lone scenario: St Mary’s loses to Portland and Gonzaga AND San Francisco loses to either San Diego and/or LMU
This is the least likely scenario, since it would require St Mary’s to lose at home to Portland — who is 0-14 in the WCC.
How BYU finishes third:
Scenario 1: St Mary’s loses to Portland and Gonzaga AND San Francisco wins both their games
Scenario 2: St Mary’s wins at least one of their games AND San Francisco loses one of their games.
Scenario 3: BYU loses to San Diego AND San Francisco loses both of their games.
After San Francisco’s loss to Santa Clara last Saturday, third place for BYU remains a decent shot. Both of USF’s games are at home, but San Diego and LMU are good enough teams to pull the upset (USD already beat USF in San Diego). BYU and USF are tied in the loss column, so just one loss by USF would give BYU third place if the Cougars can beat San Diego.
How BYU finishes fourth:
This one is most likely to happen. BYU would have been in the driver’s seat for second seed and a bye to the WCC semifinals had they beaten San Francisco, but instead they’re faced with likely playing Gonzaga in the semis — if BYU can win the quarterfinal matchup first.