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Preseason human polls are usually useless, and in college basketball, sometimes the regular-season human polls are, too. Computer rankings can be useful, though in the preseason most of those are based on some combination of prediction and last season's results.
But it's still at least fun to see what people and/or math formulas think about teams. With that in mind, I've taken a look at the rankings of Ken Pomeroy, college basketball stats god, as well as the results of Prediction Machine's Predictalator.
Ken Pomeroy lists our beloved BYU Cougars at #50 -- just inside the top 50, which is generally considered "best" in the large context of Division I's 347 teams.
Prediction Machine, on the other hand, puts BYU at #37. This ranking was determined by current rosters and depth charts, and a simulation of every team against each other done 50,000 times. Teams were then put in order by winning percentage.
Somewhere in that range feels right to me. If BYU wins a couple swing games, 37 is possible. If not, hovering at or just below 50 is likely.
I also compiled the rankings for all of BYU's opponents. Here you go!
OPPONENT |
Ken Pomeroy |
Predict Machine |
Tennessee State |
152 |
223 |
Georgia State |
164 |
103 |
Florida State |
51 |
36 |
Notre Dame or Saint Joseph's |
17 |
18 |
UTSA |
214 |
148 |
Cal State Northridge |
253 |
294 |
Montana |
103 |
107 |
Iowa State |
62 |
35 |
Utah State |
98 |
115 |
Utah |
309 |
286 |
Weber State |
187 |
191 |
Eastern New Mexico |
-- |
-- |
Baylor |
20 |
17 |
Northern Arizona |
325 |
346 |
Virginia Tech |
79 |
110 |
NON CONFERENCE AVG |
138.4 |
139.9 |
Loyola Marymount |
155 |
173 |
San Francisco |
197 |
188 |
Pepperdine |
299 |
318 |
Santa Clara |
154 |
199 |
Saint Mary's |
47 |
42 |
San Diego |
140 |
156 |
Gonzaga |
14 |
26 |
Portland |
182 |
292 |
WCC AVERAGE |
148.5 |
174.3 |
OVERALL AVERAGE |
141.9 |
151.9 |
Top 50 teams |
4/22 |
6/22 |
Top 100 teams |
8/22 |
6/22 |
Top-half teams |
14/22 |
13/22 |
KenPom loves Gonzaga, and for good reason. The Zags will be good. I think all three of the other Utah's teams will end up being underrated by these numbers. I don't expect Utah to be nearly as terrible, and I think Utah State and Weber State will be better than these numbers as well.