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BYU vs. Gonzaga: Odds, betting lines and computer predictions

Using data from betting services and several computer predictors that might give us an accurate preview for BYU basketball’s matchup with Gonzaga

By Brett Hein

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Brigham Young v Gonzaga Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

BYU basketball has scored some upset wins over Gonzaga before, but this season the No. 4 Zags are looking possibly better than ever.

Here’s a look at odds and predictions for when Gonzaga (19-2, 6-0 WCC) visits BYU (13-9, 5-2) in a Thursday game that tips off at 9 p.m. MT on ESPN2.

LINES AND ODDS

Gonzaga is a 14.5-point favorite, according to betting site 5Dimes, and the over/under is 167.

Vegas lines and odds aren’t necessarily meant to predict, but to entice betting. However, combining the line and the over/under usually ends up with a decent game prediction.

Combining the line and the over/under, the betting combo has Gonzaga winning 91-76.

RANKINGS

NET, the NCAA’s new rating system it will use to help determine the NCAA Tournament field, has Gonzaga ranked #2 and BYU ranked #109 nationally (out of 353 Division I teams).

KPI has Gonzaga at #18 and BYU at #100.

PREDICTIVE RATINGS

CBB guru Ken Pomeroy rates Gonzaga #4 and BYU #96. (The closest team BYU has played of that caliber is Nevada, currently #17). His numbers predict Gonzaga winning 93-78 at 91% probability. (Subscribe to KenPom, y’all.)

Jeff Sagarin’s formula assigns point values to teams (and home-court advantage) that can be used to predict games. Sagarin rates Gonzaga #3 at 94.96 and BYU #87 at 78.18. Factoring those numbers and a home-court advantage worth 3.14 points, Sagarin has Gonzaga winning by 14 (13.64).

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What do you say, BYU fans? Are those numbers enough to scare off your hopes or do past upsets keep that hope alive?

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