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First round games of the West Coast Conference tournament begin Friday. Here are several kinds of predictions experts are making about BYU and the WCC tournament field.
First, let's go to college hoops stat king Ken Pomeroy and his log5 probabilities. These numbers give the likelihood each team advances to a given round of the tournament. (Click through to his site for the full breakdown.)
|
Team
|
To reach title game
|
To win tournament
|
|
1. Gonzaga |
85.4%
|
66.6%
|
|
2. BYU |
61.8
|
20.8
|
|
3. Saint Mary’s |
31.3
|
7.8
|
|
4. Pepperdine |
5.7
|
1.6
|
|
5. San Diego |
7.0
|
2.1
|
|
6. Portland |
5.4
|
0.6
|
|
7. Santa Clara |
1.1
|
0.08
|
|
8. San Francisco |
1.7
|
0.4
|
|
9. Pacific |
0.2
|
0.02
|
|
10. Loyola Marymount |
0.4
|
0.02
|
Pomeroy also had this to say:
BYU's upset at Gonzaga allowed the Cougars to just barely pass the Bulldogs for the league's offensive efficiency crown in conference play. This denied the Zags the honor of leading the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Team Rankings also has a similar prediction of probabilities:
|
Team
|
To reach title game
|
To win tournament
|
|
1. Gonzaga |
91.26% |
71.14% |
|
2. BYU |
63.47 |
20.67 |
|
3. Saint Mary’s |
25.25 |
4.75 |
|
4. Pepperdine |
3.44 |
0.90 |
|
5. San Diego |
4.76 |
1.38 |
|
6. Portland |
6.31 |
0.60 |
|
7. Santa Clara |
0.35 |
0.05 |
|
8. San Francisco |
4.65 |
0.47 |
|
9. Pacific |
0.32 |
0.01 |
|
10. Loyola Marymount |
0.19 |
0.02 |
* * *
On the betting odds angle, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released odds for who will win the tournament:
Gonzaga - 1:3
BYU - 3:1
Saint Mary's - 10:1
Field - 10:1
* * *
Robert Ferringo of Doc Sports handicapping offered the four most-likely winners in these predictions:
The Favorite: Gonzaga
"Gonzaga really doesn't have a weakness. Their guard play is excellent ... This team can shoot, can defend, can play at a high level and is extremely well-coached."
The Contender: BYU
"Good luck trying to figure out what you are going to get from this Cougars team .. But they have won six straight after a January swoon, and they are the hottest team in the league coming into March. This team is flaky as hell. But they are also playing for a possible at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament ... This is a boom-or-bust team that could either lose early or shoot its way to the title game"
The Sleeper: Saint Mary's
This year's team isn't as good as past versions. But there is definitely talent here. ... This team has been very streak ... But they are one of the most experienced teams in the country, and their five seniors are going to be fighting tooth and nail to get one last title.
The Spoiler: San Diego
I am going to go with San Diego simply because of their senior guards. Diminutive point guard Chris Anderson and super-shooter Johnny Dee make up one of the best backcourts in the league ... If his guards play out of their minds they might just be able to muck up the works.