Vanquish The Foe - BYU football scheduling and independenceBYU sports. Messin' with Texas since 1987.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50093/vanquish-fav.png2015-08-20T06:08:01-07:00http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/rss/stream/33749732015-08-20T06:08:01-07:002015-08-20T06:08:01-07:00BYU's schedule: It's tough after September, too
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<figcaption>Myles Jack will help UCLA be on the brink of something big. | Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>A well-researched rating of all FBS schools shows BYU's 2015 schedule is more than just a tough September.</p> <p>If you still aren't familiar with Bill Connelly's work, he's one of the most well-researched college football writers <i>and</i> one of the leaders in football analytics.</p>
<p>His writing happens here in the SB Nation family, while the analytics is at <a target="_blank" href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/">Football Outsiders</a>.</p>
<p>Based on his meticulous analysis and research of every college football program, and using the advanced stats created by Football Outsiders, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/8/19/9173169/ncaa-football-2015-power-rankings">Connelly recently posted a 1-128 ranking for the upcoming 2015 season</a>. Of note, he explained this was not an exercise in evaluating schedules and deciding what records teams would finish with, but rather a measure of how good he thinks teams should be.</p>
<p>He broke the landscape down into eight tiers. I took BYU's schedule and referenced it against Connelly's list, partly because I felt there were many middle-tier opponents BYU fans were discrediting.</p>
<p>Here's how BYU's schedule shapes up in Connelly's well-researched list:</p>
<h5>Tier 1: Contenders</h5>
<p>This group is an exclusive six deep, and BYU plays no Tier 1 teams in 2015.</p>
<h5>Tier 2: Could easily be contenders with a couple of happy answers</h5>
<p>9. UCLA</p>
<p>The answer UCLA is looking for is at quarterback. If that happens, the Bruins could be really good.</p>
<h5>Tier 3: A top-15 performance would not be surprising</h5>
<p>26. Boise State<br>27. Missouri<br>28. Nebraska<br>29. Michigan<br>(32. BYU)</p>
<p>It's interesting that such a big chunk of opponents (one-third of the schedule, to be exact) would come from a pretty good tier of teams, especially those who could break through for a really good season. It's also interesting BYU is included in this group that ranges from 18-34. Many are skeptical if either Nebraska and Michigan will be able to put together good seasons. Connelly's estimation says they should.</p>
<h5>Tier 4: A couple will play at a top-25 level</h5>
<p>40. Cincinnati</p>
<p>In my estimation, the Bearcats are the team BYU fans are overlooking the most. Cincinnati could end up really good if the cards fall right.</p>
<p>So already, we have half of BYU's opponents in the top 40. Pretty strong, right? That's definitely a mark of a healthy schedule if Connelly's analysis comes to fruition.</p>
<h5>Tier 5: Top-40 is the goal</h5>
<p>64. Utah State<br>66. East Carolina</p>
<p>This tier is full of teams who are good teams, but due to talent coming back might not have enough to post a top-25 season -- and a top-40 season would therefore be considered a successful, possibly overachieving one.</p>
<p>Math-wise, Utah State comes in at the exact half-way point of the 1-128 rankings. Since the difference between 64 and 66 is likely very negligible, and I'm not willing to split that hair, this tier gives BYU six opponents in the top-40 and eight (that's two-thirds) in the top half of the country.</p>
<h5>Tier 6: Mid-major up-and-comers, P5 deadweights</h5>
<p>BYU has no opponents in this tier</p>
<h5>Tier 7: :-(</h5>
<p>95. San Jose State<br>103. Fresno State</p>
<p>Connelly writes of SJSU: "San Jose State is basically a West Coast Western Michigan. <a data-ref-index="25" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/4/3/8337431/san-jose-state-football-2015-preview-schedule-roster">The Spartans reeled in a top-60 recruiting class out of nowhere, better than Iowa's</a> ... and now we wait to see how long it takes for a talent upgrade to actually make a difference."</p>
<h5>Tier 8: :-( :-( :-(</h5>
<p>120. Connecticut</p>
<p>The final tier consists of the worst 13 schools in the country. BYU gets one at home. And woof.</p>
<h5>Not-rated:</h5>
<p>Wagner (FCS)</p>
<p>Two-thirds of BYU's schedule is beyond solid, according to Connelly, and then the final third is filled with cupcakes -- which is not terribly different than many teams. (Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Syracuse are all Power 5 teams in Tier 7, for example.)</p>
<p>* * *<br>Averaging out the 11 FBS opponents, the Cougars' average opponent ranking in Connelly's list is 55.</p>
<p>For a reference of someone with similar non-P5 status who plays well, Boise State's average opponent ranking is 82. In fact, BYU is Boise's only top-40 opponent, compared to BYU's six such opponents. Really makes you jones for Mountain West membership, doesn't it.</p>
<p>Overall, examination of Connelly's ranking gives BYU a strong schedule. Juggernauts every week? Certainly not, but BYU will face stiff competition throughout. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKnG06-oYcg" target="_blank">Can't wait</a>.</p>
https://www.vanquishthefoe.com/byu-cougars-football/2015/8/20/9180545/power-rating-byu-2015-football-schedule-opponents-rankingBrett Hein2015-08-18T18:57:29-07:002015-08-18T18:57:29-07:00BYU & Utah to play in 2019-20
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<p>A report from the Salt Lake Tribune has the rivalry continuing for two more years.</p> <p>Jay Drew of the Salt Lake Tribune confirmed with BYU a two-year extension of the football rivalry with Utah has been agreed upon:</p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">BYU athletic dept. spokesman Duff Tittle confirms that BYU (Holmoe) and Utah have agreed to a football contract extension for 2019 and 2020.</p>
— Jay Drew (@drewjay) <a href="https://twitter.com/drewjay/status/633815343165640704">August 19, 2015</a>
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<p>The agreement comes amidst a big fan and media firestorm after Utah athletic director <a href="http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2015/8/18/9172563/byu-football-utah-holy-war-future-schedules-boo-hiss" target="_blank">Chris Hill said his fans don't want to play BYU anymore</a>. This, of course, set social media ablaze with indignation on both sides and manhood-measuring about who does or doesn't "need" the game.</p>
<p>Despite all the mind-numbing insanity that occurs around the game, the football aspect of the agreement is a good thing. Too many rivalries have been discarded by the latest waves of conference realignment. As maddening as our fanbases are, let's play the game.</p>
<p>The additional two years will have BYU and Utah playing football every year from 2016-2020. Presumably, with the 2018 game already slated for Nov. at Utah, the 2019 game would be in Provo and the 2020 contest in Salt Lake City.</p>
<p>BYU now ostensibly has the following games scheduled for 2019:<br>HOME: USC, Washington, Utah, Boise State<br>AWAY: Virginia, Toledo, Utah State, Washington State, UMass</p>
<p>The 2020 slate currently looks like this:<br>HOME: Michigan State, Missouri<br>AWAY: Arizona State, Utah, Boise State, Stanford, Northern Illinois</p>
https://www.vanquishthefoe.com/byu-cougars-football/2015/8/18/9174979/byu-football-schedules-byu-and-utah-set-to-play-in-2019-2020Brett Hein2015-07-14T06:30:02-07:002015-07-14T06:30:02-07:00Revisiting obsession with BYU football's Novembers
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<p>Are BYU football's November schedules as terrible as #NARRATIVE leads you to believe?</p> <p>Over the weekend, I once again saw a discussion about BYU's football schedules in the month of November on Twitter, including a few who insisted BYU's November schedules were "crappy" or "terrible."</p>
<p>I remembered <a href="http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2012/6/21/3108552/why-the-november-obsession" target="_blank">a piece I wrote three years ago</a> examining our collective obsession with how BYU is able to schedule football games in the month of November as an independent.</p>
<p>One of my main conclusions from that piece was that fans, by and large, incorrectly remember how "good" November schedules were prior to independence. They were usually pretty average (at best) to poor (at worst) as BYU would face the dregs of the Mountain West.</p>
<p>"But they were playing for a conference title!" Oh yes, the almighty Mountain West championship. Those are only as important as how long it takes you to figure out/google how many MW trophies BYU has in its possession. (Hint: top 25 finishes are much more important.)</p>
<p>An important caveat which was important to that discussion was how Utah fit. Utah often held a solid record in the pre-independent era, but its absence in independent Novembers is not the doing of BYU's independence. The Cougars would not be playing Utah in November if BYU remained in MWC or went independent.</p>
<p>With that, I wanted to revisit this examination to see what kind of schedules the Cougars ended up facing in independent Novembers post-2012. As I explained in the original piece, 2011-12 were the transitional seasons where BYU had home-homes with WAC teams to help fill out the first couple years of independent schedules, as college football schedules are usually contracted a couple years in advance (at the least).</p>
<p>For comparison's sake, BYU's best schedule in the pre-independent Bronco era (as tallied by winning percentages) was in 2008. Utah finished 13-0, Air Force 8-5, Colorado State 7-6, and SDSU 2-10. That's good for 30-21, a winning percentage of .588.</p>
<p>The worst November in the pre-independent Bronco era was 2010. <i>Even with</i> Utah's 10-3 record, BYU's 2010 November opponents finished 16-34 (.320). BYU fans suffered through consecutive games against UNLV, Colorado State, and New Mexico before the rivalry game came, three opponents who were a combined 6-31. WOOF. Freshman Jake Heaps led BYU to win those three games by an average score of 48-8. THAT WAS SO THRILLING OMG CONFERENCE AFFILIATION FOR LIFE.</p>
<p>In the post-2012 examination of Novembers, it is very important to point out BYU never played a power-5 team in November, good or bad. It was always fellow have-nots from the MW in November. If you value a non-power-5 conference championship race, that fact should negate your sourness toward independent Novembers. If you care little about non-power-5 conference titles (like I do), playing power-5 teams in November is a major plus.</p>
<p>As I examined these post-2012 Novembers, I honestly wasn't sure how to assign value to games against FCS opponents. The quality of FCS teams varies so widely, and many are willing to lose up to 2 games against FBS teams every season, that it's hard to say the win-loss records of FCS teams are valuable to this exercise. So I've excluded their records and will leave it up to you to add them to each year as you qualitatively see fit.</p>
<p>So let's finally dive into the numbers.</p>
<h5>2013</h5>
<p>at Wisconsin (9-4)<br>at Notre Dame (9-4)<br>at Nevada (4-8)<br>vs. Idaho State (FCS)<br>TOTAL: 22-16 (.579)</p>
<p>What we saw in 2013 was just about equal to the best pre-independent November under Bronco, winning percentage-wise. I feel comfortable equating 2008 SDSU (2-10) with 2013 Idaho State, the Aztecs were awful that season. But in 2013, BYU played <i>two</i> power-5 opponents. In my view, 2013 was the best November schedule in the Bronco era from a competition standpoint.</p>
<h5>2014</h5>
<p>vs. UNLV (2-11)<br>at Cal (5-7)<br>vs. Savannah State (FCS)<br>TOTAL: 7-18 (.280)</p>
<p>It's very interesting that the best November possibly in program history was followed by this dud. 2014 was easily the worst November in the Bronco era. Its only saving grace was having a game against a power-5 school, but at 5-7, that is offset in my view by playing Savannah State, one of the worst FCS teams available. Make no mistake, this November stunk.</p>
<h5>2015 (using 2014 records)</h5>
<p>at San Jose State (3-9)<br>at Missouri (11-3)<br>vs. Fresno State (6-7)<br>at Utah State (10-4)<br>TOTAL: 30-23 (.566)</p>
<p>I know using 2014 records is somewhat of a fool's errand, but there isn't really any other worthwhile measure to look at this season's upcoming November. But competitively, that's a very, very good November slate if those four team's success carries over. BYU also managed to fill all four weeks, which is something we probably won't see often.</p>
<p>Plus, you have a game in an NFL stadium against an SEC team that went 11-3 last season. Gimme that.</p>
<p>Looking ahead to 2016, BYU will likely have a bye, go on the road to Cincinnati, and host UMass and Utah State. That slate should fall somewhere in between 2013 (great) and 2014 (terrible), though Cinci and Utah State could potentially be 9- or 10-win teams if trends continue.</p>
<p>* * *<br>So this leaves me wondering, why do fans continue to insist on complaining about November schedules? Even in 2011-12, as my previous article examined, BYU fans weren't really that much worse off. Now that Tom Holmoe has been given time to build his schedules, are we really missing the strings of MWC teams?</p>
<p>The one sticking point: home games. The 2013 and 2015 schedules will feature only one November home game. That only happened once in the MW portion of the Bronco era. The 2014 schedule had two November home games but they were against the two worst opponents of the year.</p>
<p>2016 gives two home games again, but one will be against a bad UMass program. So the kind of taste left in fans' mouths about 2016 home games will depend on how good Utah State is -- but at least there is an in-state flavor to it.</p>
<p>Starting in 2018, BYU will consistently play Pac-12 teams in November.</p>
<p>All totaled, BYU is scheduling Novembers that are pretty good. I can't argue if you want better or more home games (although, why? It's pretty cold, friends). But the quality of competition is rather good.</p>
<p>So, I will echo what I wrote three years ago: It's time to stop pretending we're being robbed of something when November comes around.</p>
https://www.vanquishthefoe.com/byu-cougars-football/2015/7/14/8956137/byu-football-schedules-revisiting-the-obsession-with-novemberBrett Hein2015-06-25T08:16:50-07:002015-06-25T08:16:50-07:00What the Big 12 TV deal means for BYU
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<figcaption>Bronco looks on during a BYU game | Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The biggest bombshell on BYU Media Day didn't come from Provo, but Oklahoma. Here's what last night's news means for BYU</p> <p>Typically, on BYU <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/1/27/7921383/super-bowl-2015-media-day-updates-news-live-coverage">Media Day</a>, the biggest news is coming out of the early press conferences in Provo, with updates about depth charts and future schedules. No disrespect to Toledo, but the biggest news regarding BYU had nothing to do with anything coming out of the BYUTV studios yesterday, but in Oklahoma, as the president of Oklahoma talked about everyone's favorite offseason topic, Big 12 expansion, and in the process, blew a hole in one of the biggest talking points.</p>
<h4>So what happened?</h4>
<p><a href="http://www.tulsaworld.com/sportsextra/ousportsextra/ou-sports-david-boren-favors--member-big-conference-but/article_61cff8e3-3fca-5f8f-978e-fdf9be6bdc21.html">Oklahoma president David Boren</a> said that the Big 12 should "strive" for 12 teams instead of 10, although he cautioned that the conference shouldn't rush into anything. Here's the exact quote, from the Tulsa World:</p>
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<p>"I'm an advocate of a 12-member Big 12. I'm an advocate of us living up to our name," Boren said following an OU Board of Regents meeting. "That doesn't mean go out and find anybody. You've got to be very careful about it. ... I think we should scientifically — not emotionally, but scientifically — look at that."</p>
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<p>Okay, so that's interesting, but not especially controversial, since Boren has been a proponent of going to 12 teams even when the conference was kicking the tires on Louisville and West Virginia. The very interesting part of this interview comes here:</p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Bowlsby confirms pro rata clause in TV contracts would match shares if league expands. But revenue from NCAA, CFP would be split more ways.</p>
— Chuck Carlton (@ChuckCarltonDMN) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChuckCarltonDMN/status/613869652645675009">June 25, 2015</a>
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<p>So this is huge, as it was previously reported that their TV contract value would remain static, requiring any future expansion target to bring in enough revenue to offset having to divide up the contract 12 ways, essentially ruling everybody out. If their contract rises by adding teams, the conference would only need to split up bowl money and CFP money 12 ways instead of 10, and depending on who they add, the conference could just make another bowl or two to help offset that. Expansion had been pitched as some sort of crippling loss of revenue, but in reality, it seems that the financial costs would be much more modest, if any.</p>
<h4>What would this mean financially?</h4>
<p>Right now, the Big 12 distributes about $20 million to each school in TV money. That shouldn't change even in a hypothetical expansion scenario, leaving the conference to then divide up bowl, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/march-madness">NCAA tournament</a>, and CFP money among 12 schools instead of 10. An expanded Big 12 is likely to earn additional bowl bids, so the size of that pool should grow a little bit. The devil is in the details for how much the financial impact of going to 12 might be, but at first glance, it would appear that any pay cut would be relatively modest, if there is any pay cut at all. Schools would also likely face increased travel costs, but it remains to be seen if that would be a prohibitive factor. You can negotiate an awful lot, after all.</p>
<p>It's also worth nothing that in a 12 team Big 12, the league will almost assuredly go for a conference title game, which would create millions of dollars in additional revenue as well.</p>
<p>For a big school like Oklahoma, a small pay cut may be worth it in the name of conference stability, improved competition or other factors. For a smaller athletic department like say, Iowa State, even a modest cut in revenues could be more harmful to their bottom line. It's probably not a surprise that a university with a larger athletic program is floating this idea publicly.</p>
<h4>Why would Boren talk about this now?</h4>
<p>That's the great question, right? It's possible that Boren is floating this out there because he's saying what other presidents are thinking, or because he's trying to influence his fellow presidents into taking expansion more seriously. <a href="http://newsok.com/boren-big-12-should-strive-for-12-team-league/article/5429694">Maybe he's leaking this as a way to undermine Texas and the Longhorn network</a> (which, <a href="http://www.burntorangenation.com/2015/6/18/8804275/steve-patterson-texas-longhorns-athletics-director">given what a people person their AD has turned out to be, wouldn't be a big shock</a>). Maybe there's another game going on here. It's possible that this was just an impulsive remark, but Boren was a politician for a long time, and it seems pretty unlikely he'd open about this without a larger motive. What that motive is, however, isn't entirely clear at the moment.</p>
<h4>Why is this good news for potential BYU expansion?</h4>
<p>Conventional wisdom dictated that the biggest roadblock to potential Big 12 expansion was the TV money, as no school, not even BYU, was likely to bring in enough TV money on their own to offset losses by further dividing up their current contact. If that isn't the case anymore, than a decision to hypothetically expand the conference can focus on things like athletic program, brand, geography, etc, which is a win.</p>
<p>Plus, the very idea that a powerful and influential leader among Big 12 institutions is floating this idea is a good sign for the concept of Big 12 expansion. If Boren is willing to talk about this now, it's probably already being talked about behind closed doors, and the first step to BYU getting a Big 12 invite, of course, is the Big 12 deciding to expand in general.</p>
<h4>Why is this not good news for potential BYU expansion?</h4>
<p>Remember, the TV contract didn't change because Boren said anything. We just learned it was different. If BYU is a slam dunk now, they were a slam dunk two years ago, and the Big 12 wasn't interested. The conference will likely be able to get a conference title game even without expansion if they really wanted to, and judging by the conference's continued reluctance to expand, something about BYU is still giving them pause. Sunday play? BYUTV? Geography? Concern about adding a very religious school in a conference of (mostly) public schools? Concern over quality of athletic program? Something else?</p>
<h4>Give it to me straight, Matt. Is BYU gonna get into the Big 12?</h4>
<p>I'm not going to pretend to have a ton of super connected sources here, but last year, (while researching another BYU article), I did talk to a few people close to both the conference and schools vying to get into the conference, and the impression that I got was that the most likely team to be added in a hypothetical expansion situation was Cincinnati, but BYU was right there. That was several months ago though, and if I hear anything else that's credible, I'll share it.</p>
<p>You've heard everything else lots of times before, about geography, and "how easy they are to work with", Sunday play, etc etc. I will add that this is a relationship driven business, and the fact that Tom Holmoe has taken some active leadership roles (like serving on the NCAA Selection Committee with the AD of Oklahoma) can't hurt. Having a strong football season this season, while obviously not the dealbreaker one way or another, wouldn't hurt either.</p>
<p>If you are asking my personal opinion, I would say that I believe that the Big 12 could accomplish their strategic objectives and be a stronger conference if they added Cincinnati and BYU, although I would expect them to also look closely at UCF, Memphis and USF (I would be more surprised about UConn and Boise State). But I'm not going to be all WVU blogger and report that as fact or anything.</p>
<p>I do not expect the Big 12 to expand in the next year or two, and it is certainly possible that the Big 12 could expand without including BYU. But these comments from high level administrators are telling, and work keeping track of. Because in this sport, you just never know.</p>
https://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2015/6/25/8844823/big-12-expanasion-byu-football-tv-deal-omg-is-this-happeningMatt Brown2015-06-24T08:17:11-07:002015-06-24T08:17:11-07:00BYU adds Toledo to 2016 schedule
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<p>BYU announced an addition to the 2016 football schedule.</p> <p>BYU announced a new series during football media day Wednesday.</p>
<p>The Cougars have agreed to a home-and-home series with the Toledo Rockets of the MAC. Toledo visits Provo on Fri. Sept. 30, 2016 and BYU takes a trip to Ohio on Sept. 28, 2019.</p>
<p>Toledo is added to a loaded 2016 schedule and is a good balance game to provide a quality-but-beatable group of 5 school. The Rockets have posted five consecutive winning seasons.</p>
<p>2016's schedule now looks like this:</p>
<p>Arizona (Glendale)<br>at Utah<br>UCLA<br>West Virginia (FedEx Field)<br>TOLEDO<br>at Michigan State<br>MISSISSIPPI STATE<br>at Boise State<br>at Cincinnati<br>UMASS<br>UTAH STATE</p>
<p>There would still be one game to fill in 2016, and it was said on the State of the Program broadcast (as expected) that an FCS team would fill in that final game at home for BYU.</p>
<p>BYU and Toledo have never met on the football field. It seems the Cougars are targeting the MAC a little to fill in some schedule gaps, also having a home-and-home series with Northern Illinois in 2018 and 2020. The Rockets are coached by Matt Campbell, in his fourth season after taking over for Tim Beckman, and posted a 9-4 record in 2014.</p>
https://www.vanquishthefoe.com/byu-cougars-football/2015/6/24/8838387/byu-football-schedules-cougars-add-toledo-to-2016-schedule-with-twoBrett Hein2015-06-03T08:28:12-07:002015-06-03T08:28:12-07:00Who fills out the rest of BYU's 2016 schedule?
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<p>The Cougars have four open weeks in the 2016 football schedule. Here is an educated guess on what possible opponents would fill those slots.</p> <p>Like this season, BYU's 2016 slate is full of heavyweight games, including a few in Provo. The Cougars have home games scheduled against UCLA and Mississippi State, neutral site battles against Arizona and West Virginia, and road games against Utah, Boise State, and Michigan State. That's a hell of a schedule, especially for a team that will be replacing their star QB, RB, and others.</p>
<p>But it also isn't a finished schedule, and finalizing that slate got a little more complicated with the announcement that Southern Mississippi, who was scheduled to make an all-important late November trip to Provo, <a href="http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/byu-cougars-football/2015/6/2/8712799/byu-football-schedules-2016-southern-miss-open-date">won't be playing the Cougars in 2016</a>, so they can accommodate a game against Kentucky.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-16/2016-byu-cougars-football-schedule.php">The great FBSchedules</a> tells us that BYU currently has nine scheduled games with dates for 2016, meaning the Cougars need to pick up three more. With a little bit of detective work and knowledge of how schedules are typically assembled, we can make some educated guesses about how the rest of the slate might break down. To make those projections, I'm working from the following set of assumptions.</p>
<p>* BYU will need a minimum of six home games a season, both to give themselves a chance competitively, and also to meet their budgetary requirements. Since the Cougars already have six games scheduled away from Provo (four true road games, two neutral sites), I'm assuming the remaining three games will all be in Provo. FBSchedules says that BYU is slated to play UNLV on the road in either 2016 or 2017. Because BYU needs the home games, I am assuming the Cougars do not play the Rebels next season. Of course, the Cougars also already have six road games in 2017, so....maybe that contract gets amended somewhere.</p>
<p>* Given the bulk of Power Five and high caliber Group of Five candidates on this schedule, and BYU's roster situation in 2016, it would be surprising if one of the remaining games was for a major program, unless the Cougars moved somebody else off the slate. It is most likely that the remaining games will come from a Group of Five conference, or an FCS squad.</p>
<p>* BYU is unlikely to get a one-off game, given their historical scheduling trends, and the costs of doing so (the going rate for such a game would likely be at least $400,000).</p>
<p>Based on that, it would appear that BYU has four weeks without a game. Those are:</p>
<p>Saturday, Oct. 1</p>
<p>Saturday, Oct. 29</p>
<p>Saturday Nov. 5</p>
<p>Saturday Nov 19.</p>
<p>Now, of those four weeks, one of them will need to be an open week. I suspect that scheduling will play a role there, and Saturday, Oct 1. would be a very logical place for a bye week given the Cougars will face four Power 5 teams in a row before that, and will have two in a row right after.</p>
<p>One of those weeks can be taken by UMass, which is scheduled to play at BYU in 2016, with a TBA date. The Minutemen will also be independents in 2016, and only matches up with BYU for one open date, Nov. 19. It would make the most sense to slot UMass there.</p>
<p>Finally, the Cougars have played at least one FCS team every season since going independent, and I wouldn't expect that to change in 2015. <a href="http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/byu-cougars-football/2014/12/17/7409009/byu-football-future-schedules-fcs-teams">I've previously written about why this isn't so bad</a>, and while it may be a bit of a drag to face UMass (who will suck) and an FCS team at home during the same year...fans also get an SEC team and UCLA, so don't complain that much. BYU could get an FCS team to come to Provo just about any week of the season. If BYU can get two FBS home games, I'm sure they'll prefer that to an FCS squad, but recent history indicates that isn't likely.</p>
<p>Okay. So what teams make sense, financially, logistically, and competitively?</p>
<h4>Tulane</h4>
<p>This would be the easiest solution. BYU gave Tulane a home game in 2009 (the first BYU game I ever saw in person), and could potentially leverage that to get a one-off game in Provo. The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/american">American</a> has built a strong scheduling relationship with BYU, and has a conference schedule that allows for teams to play a non-league game in October or November. The 2016 AAC slate isn't out yet, but Tulane only has two non-conference games scheduled for 2016 (UL-Lafayette, and a TBA date at Wake Forest), so they can easily add a drip to Provo there too. The Green Wave should fit right into what BYU would need, competition wise as well. Getting the Green Wave in for that Oct 29 slot makes an awful lot of sense for everybody.</p>
<h4>Army</h4>
<p>We've been down this road before, as Bronco Mendenhall has made no secret of wanting to schedule a service academy, and would certainly be willing to give the Black Knights a home game in return. Army has been less excited about scheduling the Cougars, but with Notre Dame the only other heavyweight on their 2016 schedule, perhaps adding BYU would be more palatable to a rebuilding Army squad, especially if they could host the Cougars in a few years, once they improve. Army has open dates on Oct 29 and Nov. 19. This is probably less likely than Tulane, but would still make some sense.</p>
<p><b>UPDATE:</b> Intrepid <a href="https://twitter.com/mattbc03/status/606141240107769856">reader MattBC03 reminds</a> me that Army already has contracted games with Wake Forest, Buffalo and Duke for 2016 that do not have dates yet, meaning that they're actually full unless somebody gets moved. So this isn't so likely.</p>
<h4>Buffalo</h4>
<p>BYU doesn't typically play MAC teams, although they do a have a future series scheduled with NIU. But a lack of teams with open 2016 dates could cause the Cougars and Bulls to talk. Buffalo only has two games scheduled in 2016 (Army and at Nevada), and while playing a non-conference game in November might be a stretch, the MAC schedule can be tweaked to allow an October date. One thing to consider here is that BYU has tried to schedule Syracuse in an attempt to give their players a chance to see LDS historical sites in upstate New York. Buffalo is only about an hour and a half from Palmyra, which could make it a potential home and home target as well.</p>
<p>BYU, of course, could also shift another previously scheduled game, changing the pool of available teams. Based on what we know now though, my best guess for what remains open on the 2016 BYU schedule would look like this:</p>
<p>Oct. 1 - BYE</p>
<p>Oct. 29 - Tulane</p>
<p>Nov. 5 - FCS team (Idaho State? Weber?)</p>
<p>Nov. 29 - UMass</p>
https://www.vanquishthefoe.com/byu-cougars-football/2015/6/3/8713787/who-fills-out-the-rest-of-the-2016-byu-football-schedule-possible-opponentsMatt Brown2015-06-02T11:32:29-07:002015-06-02T11:32:29-07:00BYU's 2016 home game vs. Southern Miss to be moved
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/34feraMnaAJLJPCpr3vG2u1Vafo=/0x119:3424x2402/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46455438/usa-today-8239110.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Southern Miss has signed a home and home with Kentucky, and that might complicate things for BYU</p> <p>BYU's 2016 football schedule is mostly set, with plenty of big, headline-grabbing games -- including home dates against Mississippi State and UCLA. It appears that recent developments may jeopardize another date with a Mississippi school, as the Cougar's Nov. 19 home date with Southern Miss is now in doubt.</p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.hattiesburgamerican.com/theplacetobe/2015/06/02/usm-kentucky-agree-to-home-and-home-series/">The Eagles signed a new home and home agreement with Kentucky today</a>, with the Eagles heading to Lexington on Sept 3. 2016. The Eagles are now overscheduled for 2016, which means that Southern Miss will need to move either a road date at LSU, or their BYU game, to make it all fit. Jason Munz, a Southern Mississippi beat writer, <a href="https://twitter.com/munzly/status/605797909813035011">believes that the BYU game is most likely to get moved.</a></p>
<p><b>UPDATE: (2:41 PM ET)</b> <a href="https://twitter.com/SouthernMissAD/status/605802329313394689">Southern Mississippi's AD confirms with this tweet that the BYU/Southern Miss game will be moved.</a></p>
<p>Southern Miss has moved their series with BYU before, and if it drops off the schedule entirely, it isn't a big loss as far as the on the field product is concerned. After going 12-2 in 2011 under Larry Fedora, the Eagles have won exactly four games total since. A year change does complicate the math for BYU's schedule though, since the Eagles were scheduled to play in Provo in late November. Those dates are hard to come by.</p>
<p>UMass is scheduled to play at Provo in 2016 and doesn't have a date scheduled, and with open dates in late November, the Minutemen could potentially take the spot of the Eagles. Failing that, BYU might look towards an FCS team to fill the slot, or maybe even UAB, who is planning on playing football again in 2016, but likely won't be playing a full FBS schedule.</p>
<p>BYU will play Arizona and WVU on neutral sites, Utah, Michigan State, Boise State and Cincinnati on the road, and UCLA, Mississippi State, UMass and Utah State at home. The Cougars are also contracted to play a road game at UNLV, but that is likely to get pushed to 2017 so BYU can play six true home games a season. Look for any additional games for 2016 to be home games, and likely not against premier competition.</p>
https://www.vanquishthefoe.com/byu-cougars-football/2015/6/2/8712799/byu-football-schedules-2016-southern-miss-open-dateMatt Brown2015-06-01T10:11:10-07:002015-06-01T10:11:10-07:002015 Las Vegas Bowl date and time set<h3 class="link-title"><a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/McMurphyESPN/status/605397207500615680">2015 Las Vegas Bowl date and time&nbsp;set</a></h3>
<div class="description"><p><p>BYU will land in either the Vegas or Hawaii bowls in 2015. The kick time for the Vegas Bowl has been announced, and ESPN seems committed to keeping it on a Saturday afternoon on ABC -- much better than the weekday nights BYU used to play in Vegas.</p></p></div>
https://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2015/6/1/8700037/2015-las-vegas-bowl-date-and-time-setBrett Hein